The market on whether Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding fell sharply, with the YES contract price dropping 45.2 percentage points in the last 24 hours, from an estimated 77.6% to 32.3% as of July 17, 2026. This significant repricing contrasts with whale activity, which saw a net inflow of $13K into YES positions, including $22K in buy volume against $9K in sell volume across 77 unique whale traders.
Polymarket’s total 24-hour volume for this market was $24K, nearly matching whale buy volume, while lifetime volume stands at $135K with 319 unique traders recorded. The divergence between whale flow and price movement is notable, as whales accumulated YES contracts even as the market price declined sharply. This suggests a split between larger trader conviction and broader market sentiment.
The combined data indicates a complex dynamic: while the broader market sharply downgraded the probability of Max Martin attending the wedding, whale investors increased their exposure to YES. The market’s sharp drop alongside whale accumulation signals ongoing uncertainty and contested expectations around this outcome.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +45.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 32.3% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 77.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 32.3% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $13K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $22K / $9K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 77 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $24K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 319 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.