The probability of an effective ceasefire between the US and Iran by August 14 fell sharply on Polymarket, with the YES contract price dropping 47.0 percentage points over 24 hours to 34.5%, down from 81.5% roughly a day earlier. This dramatic revaluation signals a rapid shift in market sentiment about the likelihood of a ceasefire within the specified timeframe.
Despite the price plunge, whale activity diverged from the price movement, as large traders continued to place net bets on YES. This divergence between whale flow and the tape suggests that while the broader market is pricing in a lower chance of ceasefire, significant capital is still backing the outcome.
The market recorded $27K in trading volume during this period, reflecting active participation amid the volatile price action.
This combination of steep price decline and opposing whale flow marks a notable tension in the market’s assessment of US-Iran relations. It underscores uncertainty and conflicting views on whether an effective ceasefire will be reached by August 14, with large traders maintaining exposure despite the broader market’s skepticism.
| Market | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2937526 |
| 24h price change | +47.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 34.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 81.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $27K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.