The market on Polymarket asking if there will be an effective ceasefire between the US and Iran by July 24 saw its YES contract price plunge 31.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 45.5% to 14.5%. This steep drop marks a significant reassessment of the odds for a ceasefire within this tight timeframe.
Despite the sharp decline in price, whale activity diverged from the tape, as indicated by the on-chain data. Large investors did not follow the downward price move with equivalent selling pressure on YES contracts, signaling a disconnect between market price action and whale flow. Total 24-hour trading volume for this market reached $37K, reflecting moderate engagement amid the volatility.
Overall, the combined sharp price drop and opposing whale behavior point to a market in flux, where consensus on the ceasefire outcome remains unsettled despite recent developments. The fresh pricing recalibration alongside this flow divergence warrants close monitoring as the July 24 deadline approaches.
| Market | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2937524 |
| 24h price change | +31.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 14.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 45.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $37K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.