The probability that the next GPT model released by OpenAI will debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026, fell sharply by 18.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, dropping from an estimated 30.0% to 12.0%.
Despite this steep decline in the YES price, whale activity diverged from the market’s direction. Data shows a net $4K inflow into YES contracts, with $8K in whale buy volume against $4K in sells, spread across 27 unique whales. This suggests that large traders increased their exposure to the YES outcome even as the broader market repriced it substantially lower.
The 24-hour volume on this market reached $7K, while the lifetime volume stands at $58K among 205 unique traders. Notably, the Polymarket on-chain mid-price for YES contracts remains at 45.5%, much higher than the current Polymarket feed price of 12.0%, indicating a significant discrepancy between on-chain data and the platform’s quoted price.
The contrasting signals from price and whale activity underscore the uncertainty surrounding the GPT model’s performance expectations through the end of 2026.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2668022 |
| 24h price change | +18.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 12.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 30.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 45.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $8K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 27 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $7K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 205 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.