The market on whether Alibaba will have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026 saw a dramatic shift, with the YES price plunging 25.8 percentage points from 93.5% to 67.7% over the past 24 hours.
This sharp decline in price contrasts with whale behavior, which diverged from the selloff. Whales collectively bought $6K and sold $3K, resulting in a net flow of $3K into YES contracts, even as the market’s overall confidence in Alibaba’s AI leadership waned.
The divergence between whale flow and the price move is notable given that 49 unique whales participated in the market during this period, alongside a total Polymarket volume of $6K in the last 24 hours. The lifetime market volume stands at $56K, supported by 940 unique traders.
The opposing signals—whales increasing YES exposure while the market price drops sharply—suggest a complex reassessment of Alibaba’s prospects. While the broader market is dialing back expectations sharply, whale activity indicates some players are doubling down on Alibaba’s AI potential despite the repricing.
This divergence highlights the nuanced dynamics behind the contract’s recent move, signaling that while retail and general market sentiment has shifted lower, significant whale interest remains in Alibaba’s AI leadership bet.
| Market | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2431240 |
| 24h price change | +25.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 67.7% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 93.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 67.6% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 49 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 940 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.