The Polymarket contract “Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?” saw a sharp increase in its YES price, rising 31.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours from 35.0% to 66.5%.
This significant repricing coincided with whale activity that aligned with the upward move, indicating that large traders supported the shift in market sentiment rather than opposing it. The combined effect of price and flow suggests growing confidence among participants that Anthropic will indeed extend access to the Claude Fable 5 paid plan before the July 19 deadline.
Trading volume over this period was $15K, reflecting moderate engagement around this question as the market updated its odds. The alignment between whale flow and price movement strengthens the signal that this contract’s outlook has meaningfully shifted, rather than being driven by speculative or divergent positioning.
Overall, the data points to a consensus emerging that the extension is increasingly probable, with both price action and large trades reinforcing this view in a coordinated manner.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2898504 |
| 24h price change | +31.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 66.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 35.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.