The market on whether Shabana Mahmood will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026 saw a sharp repricing, with the YES contract rising 25.6 percentage points in the last 24 hours from 59.7% to 85.3%.
This surge coincided with strong whale activity, as 132 unique whales contributed a net $40K inflow into YES positions. Whale buy volume totaled $80K, outpacing $40K in sell volume, indicating that larger traders largely supported the upward move.
Polymarket’s overall 24-hour volume on this market was $73K, close to the whale buy volume alone, underscoring the outsized influence of whale trading in this price shift. The market has had a lifetime volume of $215K with 395 unique traders participating, suggesting a concentrated but active community following this political outcome.
The alignment of whale flows with the price increase signals growing conviction among large traders that Mahmood’s chances have improved markedly. This combined price and flow pattern reflects a significant reappraisal of this political prediction within a day, highlighting how quickly sentiment can shift on Polymarket when whales move in tandem with the tape.
| Market | Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2632929 |
| 24h price change | +25.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 85.3% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 59.7% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 85.3% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $40K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $80K / $40K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 132 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $73K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 395 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.