Polymarket’s odds that Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31 fell sharply by 18.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from 33.5% to 15.5% as of July 15. This significant repricing occurred amid a notable divergence between price movement and whale flow.
While the YES contract’s price moved decisively downward, suggesting lower market confidence in Iran’s withdrawal, whales contributed a net $201K inflow into YES positions. Whale buy volume totaled $320K against $120K in sells, spread across 229 unique whales, signaling substantial buying interest despite the odds moving against the outcome. This divergence between whale activity and price movement is flagged as a key dynamic in this market.
Overall market volume for the last 24 hours stood at $296K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $2.02M with 1,724 unique traders participating. The contrasting signals—whales accumulating YES contracts while the market price declines—highlight complex sentiment around Iran’s negotiation stance.
The combined data suggests that while retail traders or broader market forces are pricing down the likelihood of an Iranian withdrawal by the deadline, whales are positioning for a possible upset.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643400 |
| 24h price change | +18.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 15.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 33.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 15.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $201K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $320K / $120K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 229 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $296K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,724 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.