The probability that 30 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, dropped 19.9 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from an estimated 50.5% to 30.6%.
Despite this sharp decline in the YES price, whale activity moved in the opposite direction. Large traders net bought $24K into YES contracts, with $48K in buy volume against $24K in sell volume among 55 unique whales during the same period.
Polymarket’s total 24-hour volume for this market was $33K, representing a fraction of the lifetime market volume of $317K across 241 unique traders. The divergence between whale flow and the price move highlights a disconnect between large-scale betting and broader market sentiment.
This split suggests that while the wider market is pricing in a lower chance of 30 ships transiting the Strait by the deadline, whales are increasing their exposure to the YES side. Such divergence can indicate differing interpretations of underlying information or strategic positioning by significant players.
The combined picture of a large price drop alongside whale buying signals complexity in market dynamics and underlines the importance of monitoring both price action and whale flow to understand evolving expectations in this contract.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +19.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 50.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 32.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $24K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $48K / $24K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 55 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $33K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 241 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.