The market on whether Ed Miliband will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026 saw a sharp 44.5 percentage point drop in its YES price over 24 hours, falling from about 62.5% to 18.0% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 15.
Contrary to the price plunge, whale activity moved in the opposite direction, with net whale flow of $28K into YES contracts, including $49K in buy volume against $21K in sell volume across 111 unique whales. This divergence between whale flow and price signals a disconnect between large trader buying and the broader market repricing lower.
Polymarket’s 24-hour trading volume on this market was $42K, representing a large portion of its lifetime volume of $71K and involving 273 unique traders in total. Meanwhile, the Polydata on-chain mid-price for YES contracts remained at 60.5%, far above the Polymarket Breaking price of 18.0%, underscoring the unusual split in market indicators.
This combination of a steep price drop on Polymarket alongside sustained whale buying suggests that large traders are accumulating YES positions despite the market’s sharp negative revaluation. Either way, it highlights a contested outlook on Ed Miliband’s chances as Chancellor in 2026.
| Market | Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2632926 |
| 24h price change | +44.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 18.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 62.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 60.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $28K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $49K / $21K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 111 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $42K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 273 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.