Breaking
Ed Miliband Chancellor Market YES Price Drops 44.5pp Amid Whale-Price Divergence
Whales bought $28K in YES contracts while Polymarket’s price for Ed Miliband as Chancellor tumbled from 62.5% to 18.0%.
Jul 15
#%sprice divergence
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 4 stories.
Breaking
“Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price drops 61.8 pp despite $30K whale inflow
Polymarket’s YES price for the Strait of Hormuz transit market plunged from 95.8% to 34.0% in 24 hours while whales bought $30K net into YES, signaling a sharp divergence between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 20.5 pp as whale buying diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?” YES contract dropped from 22.0% to 1.5%, while whales added $5K in net YES bets.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 38.4 pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s 'Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?' market saw YES contracts drop from 40.8% to 2.4% despite $6K whale buying over 24 hours.
Jul 9