The probability that Citigroup’s Q2 provision for credit losses will exceed $2.5 billion plunged 40.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, falling from 92.5% to 52.0%.
Despite this sharp decline in the YES price, whale activity moved counter to the market’s direction. Over the same period, 29 unique whales executed $3K in buy volume and $2K in sell volume, resulting in a net $1K inflow into YES contracts. This divergence between whale flow and price is notable given the market’s $6K trading volume in the last 24 hours and a lifetime volume of $16K across 73 unique traders.
Adding complexity, the Polymarket on-chain mid-price indicator shows a YES price of 87.0%, considerably higher than the current Polymarket Breaking feed price of 52.0%, highlighting a split in market signals.
The combined picture suggests that while the broader market has sharply reduced its confidence that Citigroup will report credit loss provisions above $2.5 billion, whale investors are maintaining or increasing their exposure to the YES side.
| Market | Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.5B? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2375005 |
| 24h price change | +40.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 52.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 92.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 87.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $1K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $3K / $2K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 29 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 73 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.