A single wallet known as 0x2c33…0563 executed the largest trade on Polymarket in the past 24 hours, buying $704K on the “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” market. This wager contrasts sharply with the market-implied probability of 2.6% for France to win, marking a significant bet against the consensus and on a longshot outcome.
Earlier the same day, the wallet also purchased $226K on the same market, bringing its total exposure today to $930K. This activity is part of a broader whale buying trend, where 1,615 unique whales bought $10.37M versus $2.41M sold in the last 24 hours on this market. The trade aligns with this bullish whale flow.
The wallet behind these trades is a seasoned participant, boasting a 62.5% accuracy across 3,520 resolved positions and a Brier score of 0.2200. It ranks #11 on the 30-day trader leaderboard with $7.68M realized PnL on $218.42M volume and has accumulated $317.47M lifetime volume over 297,233 trades in 3,592 markets.
The “World Cup Winner” event spans 50 markets, with $3.94B in lifetime volume and 150,840 traders. The event’s largest trader accounts for 5.2% of volume, highlighting intense competition. The market closes in six days, and the largest winner so far has netted $49.66M while the biggest loser sits at negative $193.81M.
This $704K bet stands out not just for its size but for its positioning against prevailing market odds, signaling a notable divergence in expectations by a highly ranked trader. The move underscores the dynamic nature of capital flows in prediction markets as the World Cup approaches.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| Event | World Cup Winner |
| Wallet | 0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563 |
| Amount | $704K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-14T20:40:08Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.