The market for “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” saw its YES price plunge 44.3 percentage points over 24 hours, dropping from 92.8% to 48.5% on July 14. This steep decline marks a dramatic repricing of the contract’s likelihood on Polymarket.
Contrary to the price move, whale activity diverged from the downward price trend. Over the same period, 85 unique whales net bought $35K into YES contracts, with buy volume at $64K outpacing $29K in sells. This divergence between whale flow and price indicates that large traders increased their exposure to YES even as the market collectively moved lower.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume on this market totaled $49K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $109K from 193 unique traders. Notably, Polydata’s on-chain mid-price for YES stands at 96.4%, a stark contrast to the Polymarket Breaking price of 48.5%, highlighting significant price discrepancies across data sources.
The conflicting signals between whale buying and the sharp price drop suggest uncertainty or differing interpretations of underlying events affecting the Strait of Hormuz transit question.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +44.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 48.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 92.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $35K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $64K / $29K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 85 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $49K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 193 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.