The Polymarket contract “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” saw a dramatic drop in its YES price by 55.3 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 65.8% to 10.4%. This sharp repricing signals a significant reassessment of the likelihood that Iran carried out a shipping attack on that date.
Notably, whale activity diverged from the price move. Large traders collectively bought $10K and sold $5K of YES contracts, resulting in a net whale inflow of $6K into YES positions. This contrasts with the overall market direction, where the YES price sharply declined.
The market’s total 24-hour volume reached $8K, with lifetime volume at $57K and 204 unique traders participating since inception. Meanwhile, 54 unique whales traded in the past day, indicating active engagement from large players despite the falling odds.
This divergence between whale flow and the rapid price drop suggests a complex dynamic: while the broader market is pricing in a much lower chance of Iran targeting shipping on July 13, some large traders are accumulating YES contracts. The combined picture points to ongoing uncertainty and differing views among participants about the event’s outcome.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +55.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 10.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 65.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $6K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 54 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 204 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.