The Polymarket contract “US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?” experienced a dramatic shift in market sentiment over the last 24 hours, with the YES price plunging 46.5 percentage points from an estimated 57.0% to 10.5% as of July 14, 2026. Despite this steep decline in the implied probability, whale trading activity showed a clear divergence from the price move, signaling a disconnect between large trader flow and the broader market pricing.
The 24-hour trading volume on the market registered $44K, indicating active engagement despite the sharp repricing. The divergence between whale flow and the price suggests that while the broader market sharply reduced its expectation that the US will charge Hormuz fees by the end of 2026, large traders did not follow suit in their bets. This mismatch can highlight uncertainty or differing interpretations of the underlying event among market participants.
Such a substantial drop in the YES price, paired with opposing whale flow, points to volatility and unsettled consensus within this prediction market. The combined data underscores a market in flux, where retail and institutional views on the likelihood of US imposing Hormuz fees remain sharply at odds.
| Market | US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2907324 |
| 24h price change | +46.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 10.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 57.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $44K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.