The probability that 30 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, dropped sharply on Polymarket, with the YES price falling 46.4 percentage points from approximately 95.2% to 48.8% in the past 24 hours.
This significant repricing contrasts with whale activity, which diverged notably from the price move. Despite the odds halving, whales net bought $34K into YES contracts, with $64K in whale buy volume against $29K in sell volume across 79 unique whale traders. This divergence is flagged explicitly in the data as flow moving against the tape.
Overall 24-hour volume on the market was $48K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $106K with 181 unique traders participating. Interestingly, the Polymarket on-chain mid-price at overview stands at 96.4%, substantially higher than the Polymarket Breaking feed price of 48.8%, highlighting a sharp discrepancy between the two pricing sources.
The combined picture shows a market undergoing rapid reassessment by the broader trader base, while whales appear to be accumulating YES contracts despite the falling odds.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +46.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 48.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $34K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $64K / $29K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 79 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $48K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 181 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.