The Polymarket contract on whether 30 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, saw its YES price collapse by 59.8 percentage points over 24 hours, falling from approximately 95.0% to 35.2% according to the Polymarket Breaking feed on July 14.
This sharp decline in market-implied probability contrasts starkly with whale behavior. Despite the plummeting odds, whales collectively contributed a net $30K into YES positions, with $57K in buy volume against $27K in sell volume across 71 unique whale traders. This divergence between price and whale flow is flagged explicitly, highlighting a disconnect between the broader market sentiment and large traders’ bets.
Overall trading volume for the market reached $39K in the last 24 hours, against a lifetime volume of $92K from 164 unique traders. Notably, the Polydata on-chain mid-price remains much higher at 96.4%, underscoring the difference between Polymarket’s live odds and Polydata’s aggregated on-chain data.
The combination of a dramatic drop in YES price and sustained whale buying suggests complex dynamics at play. While the wider market sharply repriced the probability lower, whales appear to be accumulating positions against this trend.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +59.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 35.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $30K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $57K / $27K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 71 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $39K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 164 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.