The market “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” saw a dramatic shift in sentiment on July 14, with the YES contract price plunging 61.8 percentage points from 95.8% to 34.0%. This represents a substantial revaluation of the probability for this outcome within a single day.
Interestingly, this sharp drop in price contrasts with whale activity, which flowed strongly into YES contracts. Whale net flow was $30K into YES, with $57K in whale buy volume against $27K in sell volume, across 69 unique whales. This divergence between price and whale flow is notable given the market’s overall 24-hour volume of $39K and a lifetime volume of $91K, involving 153 unique traders.
The on-chain Polydata mid-price for YES stands at 96.4%, starkly different from the Polymarket Breaking feed’s current YES price of 34.0%. This discrepancy highlights a rare scenario where the tape’s price action and large trader behavior are moving in opposite directions.
This divergence suggests a complex market dynamic where retail or general market sentiment sharply downgrades the likelihood of 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline, while whales continue to accumulate YES positions. The tension between these signals points to ongoing uncertainty and potential repositioning among informed traders.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +61.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 34.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $30K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $57K / $27K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 69 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $39K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 153 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.