The market asking whether 30 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, saw its YES contract price collapse by 63.5 percentage points in 24 hours, falling sharply from 95.8% to 32.2% as of July 14. This dramatic repricing contrasts starkly with whale activity, which saw a net $22K inflow into YES positions during the same period.
Whales executed $42K in buys against $20K in sells, spread across 63 unique large traders, indicating sustained confidence among big players despite the market price tumbling. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s 24-hour volume totaled $23K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $74K and involving 135 unique traders overall.
Notably, on-chain data from Polydata shows a YES price of 96.4%, substantially higher than the Polymarket Breaking price of 32.2%, highlighting a significant divergence between the on-chain mid and the market’s current trading price. This mismatch, coupled with the opposing directions of price and whale flow, suggests conflicting signals about the likelihood of this event.
The divergence between whale buying and the plummeting YES price indicates uncertainty or potential market inefficiencies. While the market’s odds have sharply decreased, indicating diminished confidence in the event, whale flows imply continued backing from major traders.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +63.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 32.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $22K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $42K / $20K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 63 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $23K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 135 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.