The market question “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” saw a dramatic shift in its YES price, falling 65.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours from 95.8% to 30.2% as of the July 14 snapshot. This sharp repricing occurred despite whale activity that diverged from the price movement: whales net bought $16K into YES contracts, with $29K in buy volume against $14K in sells across 59 unique whales.
The 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this market was $23K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $61K and involving 130 unique traders. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking price (30.2%) contrasts strongly with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 96.4%, highlighting a significant divergence between the market’s traded price and the underlying on-chain data.
This divergence between whale flow and price action suggests that while large traders increased their exposure to the YES outcome, the broader market sentiment pushed the contract price sharply lower.
The combination of a steep price drop alongside sizable whale buying indicates tension in market consensus about the likelihood of 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline. It reflects a market in flux, with whales potentially positioning ahead of or against the prevailing price trend.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +65.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $16K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $29K / $14K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 59 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $23K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 130 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.