The Polymarket contract “Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?” saw its YES price climb 15.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from an estimated 42.5% to 57.5% according to the Polymarket Breaking feed on July 14. This notable repricing was accompanied by whale activity that aligned with the upward price move, as $20K net flowed into YES positions over the same period.
Whale buy volume totaled $35K against $15K in sells, spread across 85 unique whales, indicating broad whale participation in pushing the market higher. Total 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this contract reached $39K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $375K and involving 643 unique traders overall.
Interestingly, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 57.5% diverges from the Polydata on-chain mid price of 41.5%, suggesting that market sentiment on Polymarket’s front end has shifted more bullishly than the underlying on-chain metrics indicate. The combined price jump and whale net inflow suggest a growing conviction among large traders that Iran will impose fees on Hormuz by the August 31 deadline.
This coordinated move between whale flow and price signals a market increasingly pricing in the event, reflecting heightened confidence or new information influencing traders. The divergence between Polymarket’s front-end price and the on-chain mid price highlights the importance of monitoring both price action and whale behavior to gauge market dynamics accurately.
| Market | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2686766 |
| 24h price change | +15.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 57.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 42.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 41.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $20K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $35K / $15K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 85 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $39K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 643 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.