The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 soared by 68.3 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 31.5% to 99.9% on Polymarket’s platform. This dramatic repricing reflects a sudden and intense shift in market consensus.
Whale activity tracked the price move closely, with a net inflow of $355K into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $615K, exceeding sell volume of $260K, across 320 unique large traders. The 24-hour total market volume was $484K, a sizeable portion of the lifetime market volume of $1.71M, indicating concentrated interest in this outcome.
Despite this surge on Polymarket, the Polydata on-chain midpoint price shows a much lower YES probability of 22.5%, highlighting a notable discrepancy between the two pricing sources.
The alignment of whale flow with the sharp price increase suggests that significant participants are backing the likelihood of a US blockade announcement. This combined price and flow data points to a rapid reassessment of the event’s probability by informed traders, signaling heightened conviction in the market about this geopolitical development.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +68.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 31.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $355K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $615K / $260K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 320 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $484K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,331 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.