The probability that Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13 rose sharply by 25.7 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 22.2% to 47.9% on Polymarket. This significant repricing comes alongside whale activity that supported the move, with net whale flow of $7K into YES contracts during the same period.
Whales accounted for $14K in buy volume against $7K in sell volume, involving 46 unique whale traders. This buying pressure aligned with the broader market sentiment, as overall 24-hour volume on the market reached $11K, out of a lifetime market volume of $21K. Across the market, 129 unique traders have participated, showing continued interest in this event.
The combined price surge and whale buying indicates a notable shift in expectations about the event’s outcome. The market’s near doubling of its YES price suggests participants are reassessing the likelihood of Iran targeting shipping on the specified date, with whales reinforcing that reassessment through their buying behavior. This alignment between price action and whale flow underscores a consolidated market view rather than a divergence in signals.
Overall, the data signals a growing conviction in the market around this event, with both retail and large traders adjusting exposure to reflect increased perceived risk or probability.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +25.7 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 47.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 22.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $7K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $14K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 46 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 129 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.