The probability that Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 dropped sharply by 15.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, falling from an estimated 55.5% to 40.0%. This decline in the YES contract price contrasts with whale trading behavior, which saw a net inflow of $22K into YES positions during the same period.
Whales bought $42K worth of YES contracts while selling $20K, with 84 unique whale traders active in the market. Despite the price decline, whale flow diverged, indicating that large traders were increasing their exposure to the YES outcome even as overall market sentiment shifted lower.
The total 24-hour volume on the market was $35K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $237K with participation from 633 unique traders. Notably, Polymarket’s YES price of 40.0% differs from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 29.0%, highlighting a discrepancy between the exchange price and underlying blockchain trading data.
The sharp price decline combined with significant whale buying activity points to a contested market view on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by the end of July.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 40.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 55.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 29.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $22K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $42K / $20K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 84 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $35K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 633 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.