The market “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw a steep decline in YES odds, falling 21.0 percentage points over 24 hours from 51.5% to 30.5% on Polymarket as of July 13, 2026.
Despite the sharp price drop, whale activity diverged from the tape. Whales net bought $101K into YES contracts, with $181K in whale buy volume against $80K in sell volume across 196 unique whales. This flow contrasts the price move, as typically whale buying aligns with rising odds.
The 24-hour total Polymarket volume for this question was $155K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $1.14M with 1,141 unique traders participating since inception. Notably, the Polymarket YES price at 30.5% differs from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 22.5%, reflecting some variation in market data sources.
The combined picture points to conflicting signals in the market on the likelihood of a US blockade on Iran by the end of July, highlighting uncertainty among informed participants despite the recent odds repricing.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +21.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $101K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $181K / $80K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 196 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $155K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,141 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.