A $2.93M buy order from wallet @elmcap2 on the “Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?” market marks the largest single trade on Polymarket in the past 24 hours. This stake stands out against the market-implied probability of 62.0% for that outcome, representing a substantial wager relative to the consensus odds.
The market has seen total volume of $24.48M on this event, with whale activity particularly heavy: 1,552 unique whale wallets contributed $16.38M in buys versus $4.26M in sells over the last 24 hours. This $2.93M trade joins the broader whale flow, adding weight to the buying momentum.
Wallet @elmcap2 has a significant track record, boasting 85.7% accuracy across 936 resolved positions and a Brier score of 0.1039. Their lifetime stats include $248.68M in volume, 78,687 trades, and participation in 1,794 markets, indicating experience and scale in prediction markets.
This large bet on an outcome priced at 62.0% suggests a confident position from a high-volume, high-accuracy trader, reinforcing the strength of whale interest in this market. The size of the trade relative to the market volume and probability highlights its significance in overall market dynamics.
The event’s total activity and concentrated whale buying offer insight into the polarized views on Ronaldo’s emotional reaction during the World Cup. This trade exemplifies how top traders shape pricing and sentiment in high-profile prediction markets.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? |
| Event | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? |
| Wallet | @elmcap2 · 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5 |
| Amount | $2.93M |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-07T23:46:01Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.