The probability that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by July 31 fell by 15.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, dropping from 45.5% to 30.0%. This sharp decline in the YES contract price occurred despite a substantial $129K net inflow from whales, who bought $227K and sold $99K in the same period.
The market traded $189K in volume during the 24-hour window, with 250 unique whales participating, among a total of 1,069 unique traders since the market’s inception. The lifetime volume on this market stands at $1.12 million.
Notably, the price movement diverged from whale activity, as indicated by the flow divergence flag. While whales accumulated YES contracts, the market price moved lower, suggesting a disconnect between larger traders’ buying behavior and overall market sentiment reflected in the price decline.
Additionally, the Polymarket YES price at 30.0% differs from the Polydata on-chain mid price of 22.5%, highlighting some variance between on-chain data and the platform’s current prices.
This divergence between whale buying and falling odds suggests complexity in trader expectations, with whales possibly positioning for a future shift even as general market confidence in a US blockade announcement wanes.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 45.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $129K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $227K / $99K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 250 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $189K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,069 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.