The market asking if 40 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, saw its YES contract price tumble 19.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, sliding from 55.0% to 36.0%.
This significant repricing occurred amid $13K of trading volume, signaling a notable shift in market sentiment. However, whale flow diverged from the price action, indicating large traders moved contrary to the downward price trend.
Such a divergence between whale trading and the price suggests conflicting interpretations of the underlying risk or information among market participants. While the tape reflects a sharp drop in confidence for the YES outcome, whale behavior points to an opposing view, possibly anticipating a different development on the Strait of Hormuz transit scenario.
The combined picture of a steep price decline alongside whale flow divergence highlights uncertainty and debate over the likelihood of 40 ships transiting the Strait by the deadline.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +19.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 36.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 55.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.