The probability that Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 surged by 28.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from 26.5% to 55.0%. This dramatic price move was accompanied by whale activity that aligned closely with the price change, as $28K net flowed into YES contracts.
Whales bought $52K and sold $24K in the same period, with 104 unique whales participating. The total 24-hour trading volume for the market was $51K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $205K and a trader base of 591.
While the Polymarket breaking YES price stands at 55.0%, the Polydata on-chain mid-price remains lower at 29.0%, indicating some divergence between the market price and on-chain data. Nonetheless, the coordinated whale buying and substantial volume confirm a collective reassessment of the likelihood of this outcome.
This combined surge in price and whale buying suggests a significant shift in market sentiment toward the prospect of Russian control over Kostyantynivka by the July 31 deadline. The rapid price adjustment backed by whale flow underlines the market’s responsiveness to recent developments or intelligence relevant to this event.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +28.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 55.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 26.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 29.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $28K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $52K / $24K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 104 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $51K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 591 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.