The Polymarket contract “Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?” saw its YES price collapse by 16.1 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from approximately 17.5% to 1.5%. This sharp decline in market-implied probability reflects a significant shift in how traders view the likelihood of Iran refraining from attacks in this strategic maritime corridor.
Despite the steep price fall, whale flow diverged from the price action, indicating large investors were net buyers of YES contracts. This divergence between whale activity and the tape suggests that while the broader market sentiment turned strongly against the outcome, some high-volume participants positioned themselves in opposition, possibly anticipating a different scenario than the retail crowd.
Trading volume in the market reached $151K in the last 24 hours, underscoring active interest and liquidity as this geopolitical question unfolds.
This combination of a dramatic price drop paired with whale buying points to a complex market dynamic. Traders are sharply discounting the chance Iran will commit to not attacking ships by Sunday, yet some large investors maintain exposure to the possibility, signaling ongoing debate and volatility ahead in this contract.
| Market | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2874930 |
| 24h price change | +16.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 17.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $151K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.