San Francisco leads weather market activity with the widest forecast disagreement among 52 active city markets today, as high temperature predictions range from 72°F to 87.3°F—a 15.3°F spread. This divergence coincides with the city’s highest 24-hour trading volume at $75K within a total vertical volume of $388K.
Yesterday’s actual high for San Francisco was 67°F, underscoring the uncertainty in today’s predictions. Such a broad gap between forecast sources fuels trading opportunities by creating varied market expectations.
Other cities with notable activity include Chengdu, where forecasts show a narrower temperature range of 32.8°C to 33.6°C (0.8°C spread) and $33K in 24-hour volume, and Houston, with a forecast high spread of 4.7°F between 89°F and 93.7°F and $25K in volume. These figures reflect geographic breadth in market engagement across different climates and forecast certainties.
The vertical’s all-time depth stands at $8.99B, with San Francisco contributing $127.70M lifetime volume, Chengdu $152.72M, and Houston $74.94M. The concentration of volume in cities with forecast disagreement illustrates how uncertainty drives liquidity in weather prediction markets.
Tracking these disparities and market flows provides a real-time gauge of forecast confidence and market sentiment, establishing weather prediction as a dynamic and data-driven trading sector.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | $75K | 72°F–87.3°F | 15.3°F |
| Chengdu | $33K | 32.8°C–33.6°C | 0.8°C |
| Houston | $25K | 89°F–93.7°F | 4.7°F |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.