The Polymarket question “Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” saw its YES contract price climb 28.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 32.5% to 60.5%. This sharp increase reflects a significant shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, contributing a net $26K in buys toward the YES side. Total whale buy volume reached $50K while sell volume was $23K, spread across 95 unique whales. The overall Polymarket 24-hour volume for this market was $47K, with lifetime market volume at $195K and 570 unique traders having participated to date.
Interestingly, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 60.5% differs notably from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 43.5%. This divergence suggests that recent trades on Polymarket’s interface have pushed the price higher than the broader on-chain consensus.
The combined price surge and whale buying pressure point to growing conviction among large traders that Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by the specified date is more likely than it was a day ago. The alignment between whale flow and the price move reinforces the strength of this repricing in the market.
| Market | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2608935 |
| 24h price change | +28.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 60.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 32.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 43.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $26K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $50K / $23K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 95 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $47K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 570 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.