The Polymarket contract “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” saw its YES price surge 85.0 percentage points over 24 hours, rising from an estimated 2.2% to 87.2% as of the July 12 snapshot. This dramatic shift reflects a major reassessment of the likelihood that Iran will carry out a shipping attack on that date.
Whale activity aligned with the price movement, with 80 unique whales contributing a net $11K inflow into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $18K, outpacing $7K in sell volume during the same period. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract was $21K, indicating that whales were responsible for the majority of recent trading activity, reinforcing the market’s directional move.
Since inception, the market has seen $29K in lifetime volume with 171 unique traders, showing moderate participation overall but concentrated recent interest. The alignment between whale flow and price suggests growing conviction among large traders that the event will occur, pushing odds sharply higher.
This combined surge in price and whale buying signals a significant shift in market sentiment on the Iran shipping attack scenario for July 12, reflecting heightened expectations and increased risk pricing for this geopolitical event.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +85.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 2.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $18K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 80 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $21K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 171 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.