Odds for “Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026?” on Polymarket collapsed by 62.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 62.0% to a near-zero 0.05%. This dramatic repricing contrasts starkly with whale activity, which saw a net inflow of $34K into YES contracts during the same period. Whales bought $74K and sold $39K in YES volume, involving 111 unique whale traders.
The 24-hour total market volume reached $121K, with lifetime market volume at $379K and 704 unique traders participating overall. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking feed price (0.05%) sharply diverges from the Polydata on-chain mid price of 59.5%, highlighting a significant discrepancy between off-chain and on-chain pricing benchmarks.
This divergence between whale flow and price movement signals a disconnect in market dynamics: while the broader market sharply discounted Bilibili Gaming’s chances, whales increased their exposure to the YES side. The combined data suggests that despite the price crash, some large traders remain confident or are positioning for a potential reversal, underscoring unsettled sentiment around this MSI 2026 outcome.
| Market | Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2555428 |
| 24h price change | +62.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.05% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 62.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 59.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $34K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $74K / $39K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 111 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $121K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 704 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.