The probability that average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz will fall between 0 and 20 on July 31 surged by 15.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours, rising from 24.3% to 40.0% on Polymarket. This sizable repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment regarding maritime activity through this strategically critical chokepoint.
Trading volume for this market reached $23K in the same period, indicating active participation by market participants. Importantly, whale flow aligned with the price move, confirming that large investors supported the upward shift in odds by net buying YES contracts. This alignment between price action and whale behavior strengthens the credibility of the market’s new valuation.
The jump suggests increased concern or anticipation around potential disruptions or changes affecting transit volumes on July 31.
The combination of a sharp 15.8pp rise in YES price alongside confirming whale activity signals growing conviction in the likelihood of low transit counts on the specified date. This dynamic provides a clear picture of how sentiment and capital flows are converging to reprice this geopolitical risk event on Polymarket.
| Market | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2698835 |
| 24h price change | +15.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 40.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 24.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $23K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.