The market on whether Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12 saw its YES contract price leap 78.2 percentage points in the last 24 hours, moving from an estimated 3.5% to 81.8%. This dramatic repricing signals a rapid shift in traders’ expectations about the event.
Whale activity closely matched the price move, with net whale flow of $5K into YES contracts. Over the same period, whales purchased $10K worth of YES contracts while selling $5K, indicating a strong tilt toward the YES side. Sixty-three unique whales participated in this buying and selling, contributing to a total 24-hour Polymarket volume of $10K on this market.
Since inception, the market has seen $16K in lifetime volume with 130 unique traders taking part, showing a moderate level of overall engagement. The alignment between whale flow and price movement suggests that larger traders are reinforcing the market’s rapid repricing.
This convergence of whale buying and a sharp price increase reflects heightened conviction or new information driving the market’s reassessment of the likelihood that Iran will successfully target shipping on July 12. The scale and speed of this move underscore the market’s responsiveness to unfolding developments in real time.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +78.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 81.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 63 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 130 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.