The probability that former President Trump will declassify new UFO files by July 15 surged sharply by 48.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 36.5% to 85.0% on Polymarket. This dramatic shift reflects a significant reappraisal of the event’s likelihood in a short timeframe.
Supporting the price action, whale activity aligned with the upward move, indicating large investors added net funds into YES contracts concurrent with the price increase. The combined whale flow and price momentum reinforce the market’s growing confidence in the outcome.
Trading volume during this period totaled $15K, underscoring solid engagement from market participants amid the rapid repricing. The contract’s jump in odds, coupled with whale backing, signals a strong consensus emerging around the possibility of new UFO files being declassified by the specified deadline.
Such a pronounced price adjustment, confirmed by large-scale bets, highlights how Polymarket prices can swiftly incorporate new information or sentiment shifts regarding political and classified disclosures. The market now reflects a markedly higher probability that Trump will release the files by July 15, as investors recalibrate their expectations in real time.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +48.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 85.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.