The Polymarket contract “Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?” surged 33.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, climbing from an estimated 52.0% YES price to 85.0% as of July 13, 2026. This significant repricing reflects a rapid shift in market expectations about the likelihood of the public sale surpassing the $25 million commitment threshold.
Supporting this price move, whale trading activity aligned with the price trend, reinforcing confidence in the contract’s rising odds. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this contract reached $28K, indicating a moderate level of liquidity accompanying the price adjustment.
The combined increase in price and corroborating whale flow suggests that large traders are betting strongly on the public sale clearing the $25 million mark. This alignment between price and whale behavior signals robust conviction that the event will meet or exceed the specified commitment level, marking a decisive shift from near-even odds to a clear majority expectation.
| Market | Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2845811 |
| 24h price change | +33.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 85.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 52.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $28K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.