The Polymarket contract asking whether Donald Trump will meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by July 24, 2026, saw a dramatic shift in market sentiment over the past 24 hours. The YES price plunged 47.5 percentage points from approximately 84.5% to 37.0%, signaling a major reassessment of the likelihood of the event.
What makes this move particularly notable is the divergence between price action and whale trading behavior. Despite the steep fall in the YES price, whale flow moved counter to the price trend, indicating large traders were net sellers of NO or buyers of YES contracts, opposing the broader market repricing. This divergence suggests conflicting interpretations among major participants about the event’s probability.
Trading volume on the market reached $12K in the last 24 hours, reflecting moderate liquidity during this period of volatility.
This combination of a significant price drop alongside opposing whale flow signals a contested market narrative rather than a consensus view. The divergence between the tape and large traders underscores ongoing uncertainty about Trump’s potential meeting with Netanyahu before the specified deadline.
| Market | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2929856 |
| 24h price change | +47.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 37.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 84.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $12K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.