The market on whether Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding saw a steep drop in YES contract price over the past 24 hours, falling 44.9 percentage points from approximately 83.0% to 38.0% as of July 16, 2026. This sharp repricing contrasts with whale trading activity, which diverged notably from the price trend.
Whales, defined as large traders, contributed a net inflow of $8K into YES contracts during this period, with $14K in buy volume against $6K in sell volume. This buying pressure from 48 unique whales stands in opposition to the price decline, which typically signals decreased confidence in the YES outcome.
The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $16K, with lifetime volume reaching $126K and 270 unique traders having participated. The divergence flagged between whale flow and price implies that while the broader market sharply reduced the implied probability of Max Martin attending Swift’s wedding, significant whale interest remains on the YES side.
The combination of a halved YES price and sustained whale buying highlights a complex market dynamic rather than a straightforward consensus shift.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +44.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 38.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 83.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 38.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $8K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $14K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 48 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $16K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 270 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.