The market on whether Mark Sutcliffe will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election saw a dramatic reversal, with the YES contract price plunging 41.0 percentage points from 78.5% to 37.5% in the last 24 hours. This shift represents a significant reassessment of Sutcliffe’s prospects by participants on Polymarket.
The price move was accompanied by whale activity that aligned with the price direction. Over the same period, 24 unique whales executed $5K in buy volume and $5K in sell volume, resulting in a net flow of $133 into NO contracts. This suggests that large traders reinforced the market’s downward adjustment in Sutcliffe’s chances rather than countering it.
The total 24-hour volume on this market was $6K, out of a lifetime volume of $16K, reflecting a spike in trading interest coinciding with the price drop. The market counts 182 unique traders overall, indicating a broad base of participation in this political outcome.
The combined data—sharp price decline with whale flow supporting the move—signals a strong consensus shift away from Sutcliffe’s reelection prospects. The market is now pricing the event as less likely than it was a day ago, with major participants actively selling YES contracts.
| Market | Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1822574 |
| 24h price change | +41.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 37.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 78.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 37.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $133 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $5K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 24 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 182 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.