A single trade of $7.58M to sell shares on “Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?” stands as the largest on Polymarket in the last 24 hours, marking a significant bet against the market consensus. The market-implied probability for Ronaldo to cry sat at 67.0% at the time, yet this wallet, identified as 0x2ebd…38cf, pushed in the opposite direction.
This wallet did not act alone today, executing five large trades totaling $11.52M on the same market, including additional sales of $2.34M, $999K, and $300K. These moves contrast with the broader whale activity on this market, where 420 unique whales bought $30.22M against $10.92M sold over the past 24 hours, indicating this wallet’s position runs against the wider whale flow.
Notably, 0x2ebd…38cf has a strong track record on resolved markets, with a 70.5% accuracy rate across 78 positions and a Brier score of 0.1955, suggesting a history of profitable predictions. Despite a modest lifetime volume of $4K over 307 trades in 91 markets, today’s concentrated $11.52M action on this single event signals a high-conviction stance against the prevailing odds.
With the market’s total volume at $67.93M, this whale’s activity represents a substantial share focused on the Ronaldo crying outcome. The large sale at odds favoring the outcome to happen highlights a notable divergence in sentiment and capital allocation on this high-profile World Cup event.
This trade underscores a rare instance where a top-performing trader stakes a large sum contrary to consensus, emphasizing the nuanced and dynamic positioning within prediction markets.
| Direction | SELL |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? |
| Event | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? |
| Wallet | 0x2ebd6425f9afc3d275a7706570e153ee689438cf |
| Amount | $7.58M |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-08T23:22:28Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.