A single wallet known as 0x5b4e…0232 purchased $267K on the outcome “Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?” within the Spain vs. Belgium Polymarket event. This sizable bet signals a strong position on Spain’s victory in the upcoming World Cup match.
Alongside this, the same wallet also bought $93K on a separate market, “Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5,” bringing its total large trades today to $360K. Compared to the market’s overall volume of $26.21M, these trades represent a meaningful individual commitment.
The wallet has a proven track record, showing 68% accuracy across 25 resolved positions and maintaining a Brier score of 0.2426, reflecting consistent forecasting skill. Its lifetime stats include $11.35M in volume over 4,473 trades across 29 markets, underscoring deep engagement with prediction markets.
Notably, this trade aligns with the broader whale flow seen in this market over the past 24 hours, where $12.78M was bought versus $5.43M sold by 2,722 unique whales. The substantial buying pressure from whales adds context to this $267K wager, suggesting a coordinated bullish stance on Spain’s chances.
The significance of this trade lies not only in its size but in who is making it and how it fits into the wider market activity. The wallet’s strong historical accuracy combined with its large stake and alignment with whale buying provides a notable data point for observers tracking market sentiment on the Spain vs. Belgium event.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? |
| Event | Spain vs. Belgium |
| Wallet | 0x5b4ec9c06b284ee52c41a761974d836992880232 |
| Amount | $267K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-10T18:29:01Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.