The market on whether SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 20 saw a dramatic shift, with the YES contract price plunging 35.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, from 49.5% to 14.0%. This sharp revaluation reflects a significant reassessment of the launch probability as the date approaches.
Notably, whale trading activity diverged from this price movement, indicating that large traders did not follow the downward price trend. Despite the steep drop in the contract’s implied probability, whale flow moved counter to the repricing, suggesting differing views between retail traders and high-volume participants.
Volume over the last 24 hours was relatively modest at $6K, emphasizing that the price change was driven more by shifts in sentiment or news rather than heavy trading. This divergence between whale activity and price action adds complexity to the market’s interpretation of the launch likelihood.
Overall, the combination of a large price drop with opposing whale flow signals uncertainty in the market about SpaceX’s ability to meet the July 20 launch deadline.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2954494 |
| 24h price change | +35.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 14.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 49.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.