The market question “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw its YES contract surge 22.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from about 22.0% to 44.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed. This represents a significant repricing of the event’s likelihood within a day.
Whale activity strongly supported the price shift, with net inflows of $95K into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume reached $183K, nearly doubling the $89K in sell volume, and involved 218 unique whales. This alignment between whale flow and price movement reinforces the conviction behind the move.
Trading volume on Polymarket over 24 hours stood at $178K, close to the whale buy volume alone, indicating that large players dominated the market action. The market’s lifetime volume is $704K with 775 unique traders, highlighting that this recent surge is a concentrated wave of activity.
It is notable that the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 44.5% is nearly double the Polydata on-chain mid price of 22.5%, reflecting a divergence between the live feed and on-chain overview.
The combined sharp price increase and whale buying pressure signal a sudden shift in market sentiment or new information driving expectations that the US will announce a blockade on Iran by the end of July. The coherence of price and flow suggests traders are actively positioning around this scenario.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +22.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 44.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 22.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $95K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $183K / $89K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 218 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $178K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 775 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.