The market on whether Trump will declassify new UFO files by July 15 saw its YES contract price climb 51.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 36.5% to 87.5% on Polymarket. This significant repricing signals a rapid shift in market expectations about the likelihood of this event occurring within the specified timeframe.
Whale trading activity aligned with this price movement, confirming the market’s bullish repositioning. The combined tape and whale flow reinforce the surge in confidence that new UFO files will be declassified by the mid-July deadline.
Trading volume over the last day reached $24K, indicating active participation as market participants adjusted their positions in response to emerging information or sentiment shifts. The synchronization between large trader flows and price increases suggests consensus among influential participants, rather than a contested or uncertain market.
This price and flow pattern points to a strong market conviction that the declassification event is increasingly probable within this timeframe, reflecting evolving expectations on this politically and culturally significant issue.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +51.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $24K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.