The Polymarket contract “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” saw its YES price surge by 46.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 41.0% to 87.0% as of July 10, 2026. This dramatic revaluation reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment toward the likelihood of the files being released within the specified timeframe.
Supporting this price movement, whale activity aligned with the upward price trend, indicating that large traders contributed net buying pressure into the YES position. The 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this contract reached $32K, reinforcing that the price move was accompanied by significant market participation.
The combination of a substantial price increase and confirming whale flow suggests a coordinated reassessment of the event’s probability by both retail and large-scale participants. This alignment between price action and whale behavior often points to a consensus forming around a new information set or emerging confidence in the event’s outcome.
Overall, the market’s repricing and whale buying together signal a marked increase in conviction that Trump will declassify new UFO files by the mid-July deadline, reflecting a notable shift in expectations within the prediction market.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +46.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $32K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.