Breaking
US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 17.5 pp despite $42K whale buy flow
Polymarket's YES price for a US-Iran meeting by July 31, 2026, fell sharply while whales increased their YES exposure, signaling a market split.
Jul 14
#%sprice-move
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 533 stories.
Breaking
“US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?” YES price drops 30pp despite whale buy-in
Polymarket’s contract on US sanction relief for Iran fell from 38.0% to 8.0% even as whales increased YES exposure, showing a divergence between price and whale flow.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action market YES price jumps 47pp to 91% with whale buying
Whales contributed $4K net buying as Polymarket odds for Iran military action surged sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price jumps 44.4 pp to 97.9%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour jump in odds, pushing the market close to certainty.
Jul 14
Breaking
UK Foreign Secretary Market Jumps 16pp to 60.5% on Whale Support
Whale buying aligned with a 16.0 pp rise in the probability that there will be no next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026, signaling growing conviction.
Jul 14
Breaking
Max Martin wedding attendance contract jumps 19.5 points as whales add $2K to YES
Polymarket’s “Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?” market rises from 68.5% to 88.0% with whale buying confirming the move.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14? YES price jumps 47.5pp to 86.5%
Whale buying aligns with sharp 24-hour price surge as market volume hits $6K on Polymarket
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 48.5 pp to 92% on Polymarket
Whale trades matched a sharp 48.5 percentage-point jump in YES price to 92%, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 42pp to 86.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 42.0 percentage point increase in the YES contract price, signaling rising market confidence.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting market jumps 54pp to 87% on aligned whale buying
Whale flows and price action moved in tandem as Polymarket sharply repriced odds for a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14