Breaking
Iran military action odds on July 15? plunge 39pp as whale flow diverges
YES price for Iran Gulf State military action drops from 85.5% to 46.5% despite $13K whale buying in 24 hours
Jul 16
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Trump-Netanyahu meeting odds plunge 76.5 points to 8.5% on Polymarket
Sharp 24-hour drop in YES price contrasts with whale activity diverging from the market move.
Jul 16
Breaking
Toby Doeden’s 2026 South Dakota GOP primary odds drop 17.5 pp amid whale buying divergence
Price for Toby Doeden to win South Dakota GOP primary fell from 27.5% to 10.0% while whales bought $394 net in YES contracts, diverging from the price move.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran military action odds tumble 33pp as whale flow diverges on Polymarket
Whale buying of $12K in YES contracts contrasts with a sharp 33.0 percentage point drop in market odds for Iran military action on July 15.
Jul 16
Breaking
‘Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?’ YES price drops 22 pp despite whale buying
Whales bought $5K into YES contracts even as market odds fell sharply from 71.5% to 49.5%.
Jul 16
Whales
$324K Whale Flow Bets Against 0.25% Price on LeBron James 2028 US Presidency Market
Whales poured $324K into YES despite the market pricing LeBron James at just 0.25%, highlighting a rare divergence in the 2028 US Presidential Election event.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 36pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?” contract fell from 93.0% to 57.0% despite $13K whale buying, signaling a split between price and whale activity.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will Trump meet Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?” YES price plunges 76.5 pp in 24 hours
The market sharply cut the probability from 90.5% to 14.0% despite whale flows moving against the price action.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?” YES price drops 19pp despite $5K whale net buys
Ethereum’s July $2,000 target market on Polymarket saw a sharp 19.0 percentage point decline in YES contract price, diverging from whale buying activity over 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?” surges 17.9 pp to 81.5% on Polymarket
Whales backed the sharp 24-hour price rise with $4K net flow into YES, aligning with broader market sentiment.
Jul 16